Istanbul May Face ‘Day Zero’ Drought by 2050

The term “Day Zero” describes the day when a city’s freshwater reserves are completely depleted, leaving residents without running water.

The projection stems from a recent study published in the journal Nature. Conducted by scientists from Pusan National University in South Korea, the research models the timing of “Day Zero” scenarios around the world based on factors such as evaporation, river flow, water scarcity and reservoir depletion.

According to the study, under a U.S.-based high-emission scenario, the southern provinces of Adana and Mersin may experience “Day Zero” as early as 2030, and Istanbul and the southeastern province of Diyarbakır could confront the same fate by 2050.

The findings suggest that as climate change accelerates, the second half of the 21st century will witness severe, multi-year hydrological droughts in several drought-prone regions worldwide.

Professor Christian Franzke, one of the study’s co-authors, emphasized that “maintaining a balance between water supply and demand is essential.” 

He added that improving water-use efficiency “is faster and more cost-effective than constructing new dams, desalination facilities or pipelines.”

Franzke noted that drought conditions in certain parts of Turkey have been worsening since 2000. The researcher also warned that water scarcity could severely impact agricultural productivity and food security, leading to sustainability challenges.

“Industries reliant on water, including mining and hydropower, could experience operational disruptions, energy shortages and economic losses,” he said.

Franzke further cautioned that prolonged drought could degrade freshwater ecosystems, harm biodiversity and increase the spread of waterborne diseases, posing risks to public health.